22 replies to this topic

[Azure-Edge]

http://techcrunch.co...nk3&pLid=452125

 

 

Makes some really good points. It will be interesting to see where things go. 

 

 

[3Dude]

There was a thread on neogaf where the author of the article further explained his stance.

[Lupaie]

I see some chances for Nintendo. Firstly, Nintendo games cant be played at highend pc's but games such as COD are. That way, xbo and ps4 are having more competition from pcs than wiiu. On the other hand, casual players, who until recently where easy targets for 3ds are playing mobile and social.

Also, due to their artistic style in most games, wiiu games might age better than ps4 and xbo games. Once the hype is gone and pc's outlap those flagship consoles, wiiu style gaming might still be going steady. Also, with smaller teams and less development time I think most Nintendo games are safe bets. (Although I worry about 3dworld and dk).

Also, as life grows busy more and more, I enjoy the quick eShop games more and more. Maybe Nintendo could do something with that too.

Also, rumors say Nintendo has been hiring new talent as crazy. Yet Sony is firing people and canceling games....

Edited by Lupaie, 10 March 2014 - 12:05 PM.

[3Dude]

I see some chances for Nintendo. Firstly, Nintendo games cant be played at highend pc's but games such as COD are. That way, xbo and ps4 are having more competition from pcs than wiiu. On the other hand, casual players, who until recently where easy targets for 3ds are playing mobile and social.

Also, due to their artistic style in most games, wiiu games might age better than ps4 and xbo games. Once the hype is gone and pc's outlap those flagship consoles, wiiu style gaming might still be going steady. Also, with smaller teams and less development time I think most Nintendo games are safe bets. (Although I worry about 3dworld and dk).

Also, as life grows busy more and more, I enjoy the quick eShop games more and more. Maybe Nintendo could do something with that too.

Also, rumors say Nintendo has been hiring new talent as crazy. Yet Sony is firing people and canceling games....

This.... Isnt really about Nintendo. While it does mention the wii u's current woes, its almost entirely in passing.

This article is about what I have been talking about for the past couple of years.

On that end, while the wii u may be doing 'bad' compared to the wii and mainstream expectations, its not something thats going to destroy Nintendo, as a matter of fact, whilst Sony is axing studios and personell left and right, Nintendo is adding to its ranks, massively expanding its studios with brand new buildings and the staff to fill them. Continuing that fact, Nintendo will turn a profit from it and continue on because Nintendo is not taking part in what this article is talking about.

[Hank Hill]

I may not be a genius on the topic, but the sales comparisons seem...kinda slanted.

 

The January 2007 numbers come right near the launches of three of last generation's highest-selling consoles (Xbox 360, Wii, DS),  not to mention this is right around when the PS3 started gaining steam, as well as being right off the heels of the sixth generation's best sellers (PS2, which still holds the world record for consoles sold iirc, and the GBA)

 

The January 2014 numbers come right off of the Xbone/PS4's launch, both of which are doing fairly well for themselves, the Wii U/Vita/3DS (all of which are over 2 years old at this point, with the Wii U hindered by no games, third-party sabotage and general public idiocy while the Vita is hindered by ridiculous memory cards) and the life-end sales of the PS3/Xbone.

 

Not saying the market isn't in decline, but it's kinda hard to say it's "in crisis" whenever you pull comparisons like this. :T

[3Dude]

I may not be a genius on the topic, but the sales comparisons seem...kinda slanted.
 
The January 2007 numbers come right near the launches of three of last generation's highest-selling consoles (Xbox 360, Wii, DS),  not to mention this is right around when the PS3 started gaining steam, as well as being right off the heels of the sixth generation's best sellers (PS2, which still holds the world record for consoles sold iirc, and the GBA)
 
The January 2014 numbers come right off of the Xbone/PS4's launch, both of which are doing fairly well for themselves, the Wii U/Vita/3DS (all of which are over 2 years old at this point, with the Wii U hindered by no games, third-party sabotage and general public idiocy while the Vita is hindered by ridiculous memory cards) and the life-end sales of the PS3/Xbone.
 
Not saying the market isn't in decline, but it's kinda hard to say it's "in crisis" whenever you pull comparisons like this. :T

Not really, the time is good. But there are some factors worth pointing out.

1. The biggest drop off is in Nintendo: Nintendo alone makes up well, WELL over half of that 700k.
2. There were 8 systems in the earlier data table, while only 7 in the current data table.
3. Ps4 is stronger than ps3
4. Xbone is weaker than 360
5. The rest is obvious (Vita )

No, thats really not enough to warrant the crisis line. But if you stopped reading there you are looking at an incredibly incomplete picture. Its that data coupled with what comes afterwards that shows how far up crap creek the current AAA only gaming situation is.

[Azure-Edge]

Not really, the time is good. But there are some factors worth pointing out.

1. The biggest drop off is in Nintendo: Nintendo alone makes up well, WELL over half of that 700k.
2. There were 8 systems in the earlier data table, while only 7 in the current data table.
3. Ps4 is stronger than ps3
4. Xbone is weaker than 360
5. The rest is obvious (Vita )

No, thats really not enough to warrant the crisis line. But if you stopped reading there you are looking at an incredibly incomplete picture. Its that data coupled with what comes afterwards that shows how far up crap creek the current AAA only gaming situation is.

 

Once again, 3Dude knocks it out of the park. I'd also point out that the Wii was in no way standard. But it's rampant success doesn't mean we haven't dropped down a huge peg, it's just that among those numbers was something that sold phenomenally well.

 

It's the state of the software that shows the real damage. That's the biggest factor, and the heart of it all. At the end of the day, consoles are just a means through which to play games.

[Dr Wario]

You can't argue with the numbers.  The market is shrinking.  Consoles are cumbersome, power-hungry, and expensive.  

 

There will be the next big thing in gaming one of these days, and a traditional console ain't gonna be it.

[Azure-Edge]

You can't argue with the numbers.  The market is shrinking.  Consoles are cumbersome, power-hungry, and expensive.  

 

There will be the next big thing in gaming one of these days, and a traditional console ain't gonna be it.

 

I'm not so sure there will be a next 'big' thing. I simply think some things will go the wayside whereas others remain. For example, it's obvious that PC gaming isn't going anywhere since the primary need for PCs will never go away, which means those who are looking for the highest technical experience are always going to have that appealing to them.

 

On the other extreme you have the phone/tablet community, the casual market. They're going to be even harder to convince to invest in proprietary gaming hardware from now on since they can get what they want elsewhere. 

 

That means that the only group to remain for dedicated gaming hardware is VERY small. Personally I think we'll see home consoles as they currently are go to the wayside and handhelds become the new 'in-between option' for those who want an affordable yet fulfilling gaming experience. They've come a long way towards bridging the gap and while they'll never have PC level graphics, they also offer a cheaper alternative platform for developers where they can feel free to try new things. 

[Abcdude]

Remember when consoles died years ago? Me too!

[tboss]

The thing i found most interesting is PS4 is doing bad in japan. If that continues then wiiU does have a chance at getting alot of Japanese games if it becomes the leading consul in japan. 

 

 

as for sales fegures, the guy did nitpick some of the numbers that better fit the artical. To me it looks like christman and blackfriday season will play a larger role in sales, and the rest of the year would have worse sales. that is nothing new but may mean more this gen. 

 

the 'crisis' is going in slow-mo, and only effecting specific gamers.  Compare this 7th gen to 6th and before and you can see the crisis did happen to some degree. This gen seems to be simpily getting worse. we are already seeing a recovery movement from indies and other smaller dev studio. To me the 'crisis' is just a long transition period with a rainbowty 'middle' to wait through.

[Dr Wario]

For example, it's obvious that PC gaming isn't going anywhere since the primary need for PCs will never go away, which means those who are looking for the highest technical experience are always going to have that appealing to them.

 

That's actually not so obvious anymore.  There is a growing chatter in some tech circles (ahem, Apple), that many households will simply stop owning PCs eventually.

[Azure-Edge]

That's actually not so obvious anymore.  There is a growing chatter in some tech circles (ahem, Apple), that many households will simply stop owning PCs eventually.

 

Desktops perhaps. But laptops and computers in general? I highly doubt it. Tablets have come a long way but they're nowhere close to replacing traditional computers/laptops, especially if you use your computer for any sort of 'work'. Now, for the people that ONLY use their computers as a means for web browsing/e-mail and what not then sure, they'll probably move away from traditional computers, but that is a VERY small group of people.

[DexterousGecko]

Sounds like he's just cherry picking numbers to suit his point, which fair enough, it a good way to make an argument stronger, but it's not the right way. Make this article in 2 years once the next gen consoles have hit their stride. If they're struggling to make ends meet, THEN this guy might have a point. Oh, and saying Sony is losing money makes it sound like it's their console department. They're just losing money period. Sony does make more than video games you know ^^

[Raiden]

Desktops perhaps. But laptops and computers in general? I highly doubt it. Tablets have come a long way but they're nowhere close to replacing traditional computers/laptops, especially if you use your computer for any sort of 'work'. Now, for the people that ONLY use their computers as a means for web browsing/e-mail and what not then sure, they'll probably move away from traditional computers, but that is a VERY small group of people.

This exact thing was said about Laptops not to many years ago. Not long ago Laptops were not desktop replacements and what you said was the exact thing said about them. Laptops & Desktops have become the pickup truck. The smaller few who want/need it for much more powerful tasks wll use them. Gamers or Video editors or Graphics designers and such. The average joe is switching to tablets and smartphones and PC sales are dropping like crazy. Tablet sales are skyrocketing. In a few years don't be suprised if the tablet is more common than a laptop. PC/Laptops be around yes but be there to do heavy duty jobs for the most part.

 

Personally I prefer to have a full on PC or Laptop but I game and video edit.

[Azure-Edge]

This exact thing was said about Laptops not to many years ago. Not long ago Laptops were not desktop replacements and what you said was the exact thing said about them. Laptops & Desktops have become the pickup truck. The smaller few who want/need it for much more powerful tasks wll use them. Gamers or Video editors or Graphics designers and such. The average joe is switching to tablets and smartphones and PC sales are dropping like crazy. Tablet sales are skyrocketing. In a few years don't be suprised if the tablet is more common than a laptop. PC/Laptops be around yes but be there to do heavy duty jobs for the most part.

 

Personally I prefer to have a full on PC or Laptop but I game and video edit.

 

While that may be true, it won't have much effect on PC gaming. Also the people who do need a laptop/pc is bigger than you think. Anyone who needs to use your basic office tools will still need at least a laptop since tablets just can't perform those tasks as well. Like I said, there are people who no longer need even a laptop, but they're not as big as you'd think. Anyone in any level of school these days still needs at least a laptop and anyone in business who does any type of work at home.

[Raiden]

Again you reinforced that the PC is the new pickup truck and it's market will be niche among those who need it for more heavier duty tasks. The joe shmoe market will continue to shrink.

[Azure-Edge]

Again you reinforced that the PC is the new pickup truck and it's market will be niche among those who need it for more heavier duty tasks. The joe shmoe market will continue to shrink.

 

I agree that the joe shmoe market will shrink, but people who are in to PC gaming are not a part of that. I'm not saying that PC gaming will go mainstream, merely that people who love and are willing to pay for the highest fidelity graphics aren't going anywhere.

[Raiden]

Think we are saying the same thing in different words lol

[Dr Wario]

 

Anyone who needs to use your basic office tools will still need at least a laptop

 

For basic office tools, all you need is to dock your tablet to a keyboard.  Boom, you can use Excel and Word.  No huge processing power required to write a college paper, so no need for a PC anymore, and definitely no need for a crazy powerful GPU.

Edited by Dr Wario, 12 March 2014 - 02:24 PM.