Great posts Jikayaki!

I've been reading the GAF rumour thread all week and it started out as a good thread for info but has gone to the pits of hell with people thinking Ninty will ditch motion controls and go back to 'normal' controls for the 'hardcore' gamers.

I'm pretty sure the 'going hardcore' rumours just mean Nintendo is trying to get better third party support along with their first party offerings, not that they are going to become more like Sony and MS.

I don't think motion controls will be dropped at all. I'm just waiting to see what that dual analog rumour meant.

Nintendo going "hardcore" doesn't surprise me for the most part I expected a strategy from Nintendo much like the 3DS in their next console. Nintendo wants to be the PS2 of next generation and cash in on both hardcore and casual gamers. Motion controls I don't think have been dropped some rumors from Edge point to it carrying over to this new console. I believe Nintendo is going to make two primary controllers for the console this Gameboy thing and an improved Wii remote. For the rumored touchscreen Gameboy-like controller to work its going to have to either upgrade to Bluetooth 3.0 or utilize a cheaper alternative. Pair a modified Wii remote + with Bluetooth 3.0 and a better camera and realistically it should be a sizable upgrade over the Wii's motion control. I doubt an upgraded Wii remote + would cost much to manufacture more than likely something like $18 including a nunchuk depending on the camera they use to replace the one in the Wii remote.

i agree with this, games are only going to take longer to make with the hardware they will be dropping. Unless they want their gamers to suffer droughts all through the generation, they will have to make sure they are getting third party ports to fill in the blank spaces.

I'm expecting them to do a little expanding of their studios, maybe buy up some new ones, but I still think they will need better third party support.

To my knowledge several studios including Retro are expanding. Nintendo is creating a new R&D studio as well and at Nintendo often these studios are used for making games not merely software and hardware R&D.

Found it. Here's that patent.


Wait...AMD is shipping a ton of Trinity processors next year? That's news to me. When did that get get leaked out?

A leak from AMD apparently some time last year are so stated that Trinity APU would be in a next generation console launching in 2012. There is a thread on Neogaf where the idea of a Trinity APU powered Wii 2 originated from to my knowledge. I've seen several forums predicting that Trinity APU which should be in production in 2012 could power the next Nintendo console since the leak mentioned AMD designing the CPU for a next generation console to launch in 2012 and a few put two and two together. I haven't yet confirmed the existence of this leak, but I first heard of it at Neogaf, which I take as a rather reliable source. I still think Nintendo would go with PowerPC or at least Power derived CPU, but something interesting brought up on Neogaf's is it isn't impossible to include PowerPC cores in the APU. The sealing point of Nintendo possibly utilizing a Trinity APU derived processor to me is it would cast less than twice what their CPU and GPU did last generation only at about $80 at mass product levels. Depending on the price point of the console Nintendo could easily up Trinity's GPU a little an throw in two small PowerPC cores and make profit from the beginning with a sizable upgrade in power over current consoles.

Nintendo has always been about creating awesome content first, then making a console worthy of it, so to speak. Really, as you explained over your entire post, and as I said in my last one, there won't be any spectacular differences between the competing consoles because we're rapidly approaching the physical limitations of our current hardware (e.g.: I don't think 4k TV's really exist yet; even 3D ones are still brand new). I see the next generation of consoles as one in which hardware power will play a much smaller role than it did before, and the focus will be on creating incredible, memorable gaming experiences instead - and Nintendo is better known for that than any other company out there.

I'd agree Nintendo is very successful in creating memorable franchises that hold a lot of weight for the fanbases they attract. I don't think Nintendo can compete next generation without third party developers, but Nintendo seems to be handling that rather well. Resolutions beyond 1080p do exist, but primarily on Monitors not HDTVs. A higher resolution on HDTVs is unlikely to appear for quite sometime.

I really doubt it will be F-Zero. I'd like to see a franchise like F-Zero have a reboot from Retro, but to me F-Zero doesn't make much sense based on Retro's experience though neither did Donkey Kong. Star Fox doesn't sound all that impossible I could envision a space fighter combat/first person shooter reboot that could borrow extensively from Retro's experiences with Metroid. That said I think there was a reason Retro created Donkey Kong Country Returns. Its specific existence likely comes down to needing another quick release while Retro was if I was to speculate working primarily on next gen engines, but it may of been testing the market for a Donkey Kong Country reboot. This perhaps isn't what majority of fans would want Retro to work on, but I find it likely Retro's next game for the foreseeable future is Donkey Kong. As a launch game Donkey Kong even makes sense instead of a Mario or Zelda. Its not currently really an overly powerful franchise and wouldn't completely overshadow 3D party efforts, but give a reason for Nintendo fans to buy the system right away instead of waiting.

Thanks for that list, Play4Fun. I featured it over on the blog.


I agree with most of your points there, Jikayaki. Honestly, I don't think anyone's yet made a game that uses up every ounce of even the PlayStation 3's power yet, so the arms race for the bigger and badder console is probably going to slow down as the console manufacturers begin to focus on providing engaging services and experiences, now that they've made machines so powerful, comparisons between them don't even matter anymore.

Some kind of game streaming tech a la OnLive would be amazing to see implemented by a major player someday, if only because they'd do it better. Actually, Nintendo received a patent some time ago for a technology similar to that, which also allows the developers to directly send game patches and updates to the distribution servers - I remember it was a fascinating read. I can dig it up, if you're interested.

I'd actually would be interested in that patent if you can find it, but that sort of technology isn't ready yet. It would be a waste to invest in an OnLive like system next gen console since the necessary bandwidth and internet speeds for mass market appeal isn't really there yet even in most first world countries. Currently the latest graphically impressive games on the Xbox 360 and PS3 utilize about 80% to 90% percent of the total power of these machines. Its actually rather unusual to reach this level of capability in closed hardware simply because usually we'd would of already seen a console refresh.

Not that there's really much of an envelope left to push, as you're putting it. I still remember the days when the PlayStation 3 was thought of as a miniature supercomputer, and hearing news stories about them being used in clusters in scientific and military applications. But yeah, 5-year-old technology is 5-year-old technology, and it would probably be more surprising if Nintendo didn't surpass it with the Wii 2.

It would be almost impossible not to surpass the PS3 to some extent using more modern architecture. GPU's exist that would have what I'd consider in the ballpark of next gen capabilities over current consoles, but I do have one worry with next gen consoles though and in a way that explains why Microsoft and Sony are banking on 3D tvs. Going by 01Net's R700 class CPU speculation as an example the most realist mid end GPU of that family of GPU's that may not be that difficult to optimize for consoles is Radeon HD 4850, which would roughly be a little more than four times as powerful as Xbox 360's own GPU. This GPU would allow likely at native 720p lighting and physics effects on GPU side increased by four times over the Xbox 360. If you understand the little details behind the capabilities existent in current games that is an impressive increase in its own right since most games can't run on a descent FPS on 720p on current consoles with only 1/4 the effects, but the average consumer won't be capable of noticing the difference. The image will be clearer with more detail and four times more realistic physics and lighting, but the average consumer already has trouble understanding the difference between 30FPS from 60FPS, 720p from 1080p, and even sub-HD from real HD. There isn't going to be that clear cut difference between generations we're used to regardless of how much more power these machines have within a realistic range.

The most power I expect in Nintendo's next console ranges from about six times as powerful as the Xbox 360 to eight times as powerful. According to a leak from AMD picked up by Neogaf its Trinity APU is going to be in an next generation console to release in 2012, which currently if true could be the Wii 2 making the console about 6 times as powerful as Xbox 360 if its using a Radeon HD 5770 equivalent GPU. Like the situation above, this would carry over to all consoles not just Wii 2, it would no longer be possible to truly bank on the possibility that the average gamer would be able to notice a considerable difference between the new hardware and its games and the current HD consoles. In this case the console would easily be capable of native 1080p with again a large boost in physics, lighting, and A.I., but a clear cut visual difference isn't guarantied. A format beyond 1080p being made into production would go a long way to creating a visual difference that the average gamer could see, but Nintendo wouldn't bank on technology only now entering the market anyway, much less something not yet available. Sony and Microsoft are banking on 3D to be the visual distinguisher between current gen consoles and next gen. Nintendo seems to be banking on content instead regardless of how powerful their next console is going to be. Still this is something to think about Sony and Microsoft may not push too far beyond Nintendo simply because it wouldn't be beneficial.

EDIT: To explain simply the complexity of games will increase greatly next gen, but visually the improvements will be more subtle than we'd usually expect from a generational jump. From diminishing returns and simply available resolutions along with some other factors it won't be as spectacular as previous jumps because of technology limitations. So as I meant in a previous post I don't expect as large of a jump as seen in this generation by the two HD consoles over the previous generation in this coming generation simply because it wouldn't be useful. NOTE I'm only talking about how visually impressive the graphics would appear to the average consumer. Viewing distances, A.I, physics, lighting, and the general possible size of game worlds would increase noticeable in any game actually utilizing the hardware's capabilities, but overall there wouldn't be an overly noticeable increase in graphics visually.

I think it will only be a tiny bit more powerful, but hey, the PS3 is super powerful.

Compared to the technology available the PS3 is extremely weak. Going by rumor and speculation if Nintendo uses a R700 family GPU from 2008 there exists the possibility of a console ranging from about twice as powerful as current consoles to almost exactly 10x times more powerful than current consoles. It would be rather cheap for Nintendo to out do PS3 in a noticeable way its merely a matter of how far Nintendo is willing to push the envelope since they themselves have little interest in continuing the hardware war.

I have an odd feeling that this upcoming generation may be the last, or second last, generation of (console) video games... At least for a long time.

Especially if the project butterfly rumors had some truth to them. If that's the case then all we'll have is 'sub-generations' for a very long time.

The difference in capability next generation compared to the current HD consoles likely isn't going to be as large a jump as we're used to with previous next gen console jumps. Simply put software needs to catch up with hardware otherwise costs in the industry will continue to balloon out of control. Depending on bandwidth limits and internet speeds the generation after this coming generation may be the end of console gaming as we know it. Nintendo 7 for instance may maintain majority of its power from servers something like Onlive. In one way it actually allows for expanded console generations something the overly expensive devices introduced by Microsoft and Sony this generation aren't really capable of doing, but this means you'd be paying a monthly or annual payment for the duration of the console generation. It may even be smart to allow the capability to utilize such a feature in next gen consoles and when or if bandwidth and internet speeds meet the level necessary offer the service. It wouldn't be completely impossible to over it free if costs where gained in some other fashion.

I've been visiting lots of forums since I heard about these leaks, and there's one thing many Nintendo fans "fear": that the consoles MS and Sony will release as an answer would be much more powerful. this "fear" is based on the thought that all other consoles will most probably be released years after "Project Café" and thus will have much more up-to-date hardware.

According to the rumors, Nintendo is going "back to the roots" with this one, and there's one thing in Nintendo's history that could help "Project Café" to stay on par with the competition: add-ons. They've used add-ons for almost every console they made, and there's one special add-on that could see a revival: the N64 Expansion Pak. The Expansion Pak was some kind of a cartridge you put into your Nintendo 64, increasing the RAM by 4 MB (this amount is kinda cute from today's point of view). I'm not a technician or engineer, so I can't say whether this is possible, but couldn't they release some kind of Expansion Cup Pak for Project Café? It could consist of an additional processor and more RAM, boosting Project Café to the level of the competition. I personally think that most core gamers would spent some money for such a thing, and considering that Project Café is aimed at exactly these core gamers according to the rumors, this might come true once Project Café's hardware starts to get old.

On the other hand... what do you think of the whole Project Café being a mere add-on to the Wii? Probably a stupid idea, as just adding some processing power wouldn't enable the console to use these fancy new controllers, and adding the controller compatibility by an update doesn't seem like something Nintendo would make. I hope Project Café will be an entirely new console because I finally want to make homebrew software for my Wii without risking not being able to use my games for a while! xD

Even if 01Net's speculation is right on the money we would still be potentially seeing a large step over PS3 and Xbox 360. There are GPUs in the R700 family that easily could give capabilities at least near 8x what current HD consoles are capable of doing now. The issue would be to update the GPU to be capable of utilizing OpenGl 4.1 API, which gives Nintendo an alternative to fixed shaders so their Wii 2 games don't suffer from a learning curve catching up with more modern shaders. An a three core custom IBM PowerPC CPU could easily be three times or more as capable as Xbox 360's own CPU depending on what modern Power processor line it is derived from. PS4 and XboxNext may have more modern architecture, but certain real world limitation exist limiting hardware. Be assured its doubtful that the deference in power will be as large as Wii to PS360.

Hardware is becoming ever increasing in complexity in these machines so I doubt "Project Cafe" is being designed with the concept of being able to be ungraded at a later date. The good news regarding hardware for "Project Cafe" comes down to how Nintendo has seemly changed compared to it's classical way of creating Hardware. Classical Nintendo created a device it believed had a market and met their own internal developers needs 3D party weren't involved. Nintendo now though is a different arena the console itself is still originally built with Nintendo ideas and needs in mind, but as shown with 3DS its possible for 3D party to nickle and dime Nintendo to increase the capability of console. The 3DS itself arguable changed perhaps three times during development in hardware and there is no reason "Project Cafe" won't either especially if Nintendo wants 3D party support for the long hall. Since it appears early developer kits have at most only been in the hands of 3D party developers according to rumors for at most a year and likely less hardware is no where near finalized.

These new touchscreen controllers appear to use a different version of the Wii remotes motion sensing and pointer technology according to some sources along with the ability to stream video and games. The necessary hardware to utilize such a controller doesn't exist on the Wii an software update wouldn't accomplish anything and in the first place there is no obvious way to attach new hardware to the Wii. This new controller itself requires greatly different hardware to the Wii, so without a doubt this is a new console not an add on.

There are no specific details in any of the rumors outside the controller (at least as far as detailed information) and the fact it is being reported by "sources" many game media sites trust that it will be capable of HD resolutions. A lot of the rest is speculation as far as hardware goes. An example being the French 01Net article. Apparently "sources" stated that the "Wii 2" has similar architecture design to the Xbox 360 and new controller with 6" touch screen everything else regarding hardware is speculation from 01Net. These includes the three core custom IBM PowerPC CPU, the ATI R700 family GPU, and the statement regarding "at least" 512mb RAM. These aren't real specs merely 01Net's speculation. The concrete information if true regards the controller (which is incredibly complex with Wii remote pointer and motion control capabilities, Gamecube/Classic Controller Pro level traditional gamepad functionality, and a 6" touch scream {capable of streaming video and games from the console, maybe HD, and the obvious DS like gameplay functions}) which personal sounds interesting, but at the same time doesn't seem like it could possibility be real.

As far as hardware capability goes information given in the leaks seem extremely vague. Some game media sites "sources" stating that the "Wii 2" is significantly more powerful than current HD consoles others either don't specifically state any concrete info of capability outside HD resolutions like current consoles. 01Net's own speculation regarding Wii 2's specs likely come done to rather vague info such as it still using an IBM PowerPC CPU and an ATI GPU simply because it still retains backwards capability and remarks by "sources" as stated above apparently stating that the hardware design more closely mirrors that of the Xbox 360. So be careful of believing any rumored specs as far as hardware goes, but if your worried about power don't be. If 01Net's speculation is close to what Wii 2's internal guts ends up being it would easily be noticeably more powerful than PS3 and Xbox 360 by a factor ranging from 2x to 4-5x depending on the chips.

These maybe a controlled leak from Nintendo because of the NGP and falling sells of the Wii in both hardware and software. This would explain the reason behind it being extremely vague in some respects, put more concrete in others with multiple sources giving game media sites similar information. They want to build hype for E3 and possibly a pre E3 reveal, but at the same time not giving away all the details.

i hope they go back to cartridge i mean i always thought it was superior to disc i mean cartridges are pretty cheap now and the console could be pretty small without a disc drive

Cartridges have several advantages to disks like the capability for near lack of loading times, co-processors, and extra ram, but I don't think it would be wise to switch back to cartridges. They simply aren't cheap enough yet to have capacities large enough to compete with other options available. One option that may be possible next generation is holographic storage. It removes a considerable amount of the cartridge's advantage regarding loading times with Tapestry Media having transfer rates of 20 MB/s in read write mode and up to 300GB of storage estimated last I can find at 6 to 20 cents per GB. Holographic storage is also compared to other disk formats extremely scratch resistant and a drive should still be able to play Wii and Gamecube games. As a retro bonus Tapestry Media has a cartridge/floppy disk like design. Nintendo had a stake in this technology with a joint patent with Inphase Technology, though all progress has potentially stopped because of recent troubles at Inphase, which now is under new ownership.

Yeah, I've been wondering when Nintendo will start using holographic storage. I'm not sure if they can get it out cheap enough yet.
It would be awesome if they brought it out next gen.

Tapestry Media as far as the disks are concerned likely are ready even with the latest issues at Inphase Technologies. Imagine a floppy disk about the size of a Gamecube disk with more than three times the storage of a single layer Blu-Ray disk, super fast loading times, and possibly not costing much more than a comparable Blu-Ray disk. A 150GB disk for instance could cost from $9 US to $30 US based on previous estimates. Sounds high, but it could potentially beat Blu-Ray XL at similar capacities as far as price goes. The issue are the drives the Tapestry Media drives last I knew where large and very expensive, but the joint patent between Nintendo and Inphase Technologies points to a miniaturization in the technology. The final issue though is I'm not sure if any real progress has been made because of the financial issues at Inphase.

i hope they go back to cartridge i mean i always thought it was superior to disc i mean cartridges are pretty cheap now and the console could be pretty small without a disc drive

Cartridges have several advantages to disks like the capability for near lack of loading times, co-processors, and extra ram, but I don't think it would be wise to switch back to cartridges. They simply aren't cheap enough yet to have capacities large enough to compete with other options available. One option that may be possible next generation is holographic storage. It removes a considerable amount of the cartridge's advantage regarding loading times with Tapestry Media having transfer rates of 20 MB/s in read write mode and up to 300GB of storage estimated last I can find at 6 to 20 cents per GB. Holographic storage is also compared to other disk formats extremely scratch resistant and a drive should still be able to play Wii and Gamecube games. As a retro bonus Tapestry Media has a cartridge/floppy disk like design. Nintendo had a stake in this technology with a joint patent with Inphase Technology, though all progress has potentially stopped because of recent troubles at Inphase, which now is under new ownership.

Nintendo it seems at least don't appear to be considering the idea of focusing on 3D in the Wii's successor. Some other visual or control based hook will likely be added to give the Wii's successor the same sort of viral appeal Nintendo is trying to give the 3DS with its glasses-less 3D screen. The only idea I can think of that they could add that would give a similar experience as 3D without depending on consumers buying an expensive new TV is through head tracking VR displays through the same sort of camera technology already used in the DS, 3DS, and Wii remote. The problem is that it would be a very personal experience as only one individual at a time could benefit from the effect.

The likely way the Virtual Console will noticeably change is by included Gamecube games to the preexisting service. I doubt there will be many at launch though merely a few of the more popular games. Outside that something I always thought Nintendo could do with the Virtual Console is offer a monthly subscription to stream access to previous games. It would be smart on Nintendo's part to do so as individuals that may not buy many games from the Virtual Console may very likely be willing to pay $11.99 a month for unlimited access. As far as storage looking at the 3DS the Wii's successor will more than likely have greater internal storage, but I have a feeling willing it will merely be 8 or 16 GBs of flash storage with the option to expand memory storage by SSD cards. At most an option to buy a dedicated external hard drive may be included among the early accessories.

Feldo's prediction of $350 to $400 may end up being in the ball park. With 3DS launching at $249.99 merely eight days from now in the U.S. an odd thought came to mind to gauge how expensive Wii's successor possibly could be come it's eventual release that I didn't think of earlier. I decided out of curiosity to compare the prices of Nintendo's handhelds at launch to the corresponding consoles.

The Game Boy Advance launched in North America on June 11, 2001 at $99.99. The GameCube launched in North American on November 18, 2001 at $199.99. The original DS launched on November 21, 2004 in North America at $149.99. The Nintendo Wii of course launched in North America on November 19, 2006 at $249.99. A pattern emerges though perhaps a little shallow only going back two generation cycles, but I likely could argue to extend it to Game Boy which released in 1989 and SNES released in 1991.

The resulting figure is beyond the sort of prices I expect from Nintendo, but if this interesting pattern holds true for another generation Wii's successor could be as expensive as $349.99. I bought a PS3 at $599.99 so I more than likely would still buy Nintendo's next console at launch even if it was $349.99, but some maybe reluctant if this prediction is correct.

More RAM and HD may be all High Voltage Software wants, but from statements from Satoru Iwata and other big names at Nintendo more RAM and HD isn't enough to warrant a successor to the Wii. Nintendo isn't stupid. Satisfying the wants and needs of developers is one thing, but they have to make sure gamers would want to buy the system first. A Wii with more RAM and HD would be in my opinion a complete failure on the market. A large portion of the Wii's current market simply may not reliably upgrade regardless and hardcore gamers outside Nintendo fans would have little reason to buy the product.

The Wii's successor will likely be more expensive at launch than the Wii. Like the 3DS I expect Nintendo to have a larger hardcore focus next gen and focus on getting third party support early on. Just how more expensive is anyone's guess, but in my opinion it could range from $279.99-$299.99. I don't expect it to be anymore expensive than that. Nintendo is likely going to try and keep the Wii's successor being marginally cheaper than what they expect the price of their competitors new consoles to launch. Truthfully as long as its cheaper than $400 I'm likely to be an early adapter.

I wouldn't be surprised should THQ and potentially a few other third party developers have some knowledge on the Wii's successor that's far more concrete than anything in the rumor mill. A few developers have given me the impression they may know something regarding Nintendo's next console, which if it is going to be announced this year and released next year like the current rumors are buzzing about it would make sense that third party developers are already working on games.