28 replies to this topic

[tboss]

crash, no, taking a hit, yes.

 

the cost of AAA is to high so expect alot of b-a-A games mid-later on. also expect more game engines and designs made to cut down on development(UE4 did this, cuts costs and time.)

[Nintyfan86]

crash, no, taking a hit, yes.

 

the cost of AAA is to high so expect alot of b-a-A games mid-later on. also expect more game engines and designs made to cut down on development(UE4 did this, cuts costs and time.)

I like your bond rating approach. They will flood the market, as they are currently doing to contracting sales. Applying general analysis, expect downward pressure on originality, and upward pressure on sequels, remakes, free to plays, etc.

 

The industry must have innovation, and the market must expand beyond the core and casual. This explains the Wii U, yet does not justify it...yet.

[MorbidGod]

I'm sure Sony will stay afloat too. I'm just not that sure about the NextBox. Even if M$ has the most money no one will want a system that runs on a DRM server.

 

I think I should rephrase what I meant. I don't think Sony or Microsoft will quote on quote go out business, even if Sony is going through hard times. I think Microsoft and Sony won't see the prophet of making a console if what this post is talking about comes to light. Nintendo could totally stay profitable though. It's what they do.

 

However, I could see the Xbox brand moving towards Movies, TV and Music and having a device connecting the PC and your content into the living room. Sony would try but I don't think they would be successful.

[Mewbot]

The crash is coming and I think it's unavoidable now, people have gotten way too greedy, quick get under your tables!!!

I built my bomb shelter for this very reason.

[Alianjaro]

Crash is really an unfair term. Adjustment, or perhaps, a correction, would probably be more appropriate. The market has changed with tablets and phones being viable alternatives, and Facebook gives the masses those games they like, so they are less apt to buy hardware for a few games.

 

Combine this with a flood of yearly updates, and generational shifts, and you have what we are seeing with any entertainment product.

It will take a crash for Americans to understand that something needs adjustment. It has always been the same thing in its History...

[Nintyfan86]

It will take a crash for Americans to understand that something needs adjustment. It has always been the same thing in its History...

You will have to elaborate on that one with regard to the console industry. Nintendo sat there while the HD twins were seeing their sales rise and the Wii's fall during tough economic times, and launched the 3ds. American companies, like Google, Apple, Facebook, Valve, and other digital distributers are offering a tremendous amount of competition to consoles. Even Microsoft is facilitating this by making PC gaming easier than ever (compared to years ago).

 

The sequel factory is not limited to US companies, it is all Western developers. Heck, look at Eastern developers. The large ones engage in the same practice until sales drop.

 

Economically, most countries end up riding storms until they have no choice but to do something radical. Look at the situation with the Euro, its' inception, and the subsequent deficit spending of the member nations that has resulted in problems that would not have happened if everyone followed the initial agreement.

[Alianjaro]

You will have to elaborate on that one with regard to the console industry. Nintendo sat there while the HD twins were seeing their sales rise and the Wii's fall during tough economic times, and launched the 3ds. American companies, like Google, Apple, Facebook, Valve, and other digital distributers are offering a tremendous amount of competition to consoles. Even Microsoft is facilitating this by making PC gaming easier than ever (compared to years ago).

The sequel factory is not limited to US companies, it is all Western developers. Heck, look at Eastern developers. The large ones engage in the same practice until sales drop.

Economically, most countries end up riding storms until they have no choice but to do something radical. Look at the situation with the Euro, its' inception, and the subsequent deficit spending of the member nations that has resulted in problems that would not have happened if everyone followed the initial agreement.

Yup, sorry for saying "American". I meant rich capitalist countries...
You have to look further than that. You elaborated on how companies dealt with tough economic times, but most of the companies' goal is to make money fast without foreseeing future. Why is research underfunded worldwide? Exactly because of that.
But back to gaming, Sony and M$ are making short term money and are not at all looking far enough. They're making consoles that are indeed powerful, but that also are poor excuses for a PC. People are discovering how there is no advantage in getting consoles when they can have a PC that can do a lot more, and therefore the console market is shrinking.
Why is Nintendo not that affected by this? PCs cant do what you can do on the Wii U, nor does it have the games. That's why Nintendo has not changed their minds: "Gameplay before anything else". That's what I mean by long term vision. Otherwise, Nintendo would never have lived so long, nor survived the many console wars.

[Alex Atkin UK]

Of course the console market is now shrinking, it expanded greatly during the last couple of generations and that cannot continue forever, especially with the economy in such a bad way right now. 

 

Businesses have tunnel vision, they seem think they can expand indefinitely but of course that is completely unrealistic.  There always comes a point where you can only stay the same or shrink, and as smart phones and tablets ARE competing with consoles (maybe not for people like us, but there are definitely some people who have made the switch), less money in gamers pockets, and too many sequels, its only logical that ultimately the market will start shrinking.  I mean come on, when 3 million in sales isn't enough to pay for a game you KNOW there is something wrong.

 

I don't think cutting back on what they spend on making games is all doom and gloom.  We already know that a lot of the expense in AAA games today is licensing music, using well known actors, basically stuff which is nice but in no way makes or breaks a good game. If anything, it should help bring innovation back to gaming as they were relying too much on cinematic production values and less on game play.  Nintendo shows better than anyone that you can still have a superb game and even superb production values, without spending a major motion picture budget on the game.

 

Also the cost of developing games for PC, PS4 and Xbox Next should be much lower with them all having such similar hardware.  The PS3, Xbox 360 and PC all differed quite radically in how the game had to be written in order to get the best out of each platform, costing a lot of time and money in optimisation.  It shouldn't be nearly as hard this generation, which is why it makes sense to stick 8GB of RAM in the consoles as it means ports from PC can be done without radically scaling down the RAM requirements like they had to do this generation.

 

This is also why I believe the Wii U will remain the odd one out, as its still going to be the hardest platform to port to.  Games which are designed to really push the new generation won't be easily portable to Wii U.  However there should also be plenty of games which DON'T push the platforms too hard and can be.  So again, its not all doom and gloom, I think the market will survive it just won't be exactly the same as it is today.

Edited by Alex Atkin UK, 14 April 2013 - 07:35 PM.

[Nintyfan86]

Yup, sorry for saying "American". I meant rich capitalist countries...
You have to look further than that. You elaborated on how companies dealt with tough economic times, but most of the companies' goal is to make money fast without foreseeing future. Why is research underfunded worldwide? Exactly because of that.
But back to gaming, Sony and M$ are making short term money and are not at all looking far enough. They're making consoles that are indeed powerful, but that also are poor excuses for a PC. People are discovering how there is no advantage in getting consoles when they can have a PC that can do a lot more, and therefore the console market is shrinking.
Why is Nintendo not that affected by this? PCs cant do what you can do on the Wii U, nor does it have the games. That's why Nintendo has not changed their minds: "Gameplay before anything else". That's what I mean by long term vision. Otherwise, Nintendo would never have lived so long, nor survived the many console wars.

Got ya, and your dead on the money. If The PS4 was 400 bucks, and the new Xbox were the same, I would get a new GPU in all likelihood. Well, two, for crossfire. The only reason? Third party games are very similar to both of their first party games. Plus, after the both the disc reading issue and the TROD problem, I want to wait awhile before buying either company's hardware.

 

On a side note, research, the important kind, is drastically underfunded compared to the causes that have become part of pop culture. Even then, the drug company will patent it and charge incredibly high amounts for it, even after using donated funds. Very sad situation.