26 replies to this topic

[Meelow100]

An analyst in Japan with Macquarie Capital Securities does not see a bright future for Wii U

Wii U will launch later this year (one rumored date points to November 18) and Nintendo is hoping to make a big splash with the system this year at E3 in June. Many questions about the console's capabilities still linger, however, and one analyst in Japan is not too optimistic about Wii U's long-term prospects.

David Gibson at Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited has downgraded Nintendo stock to "underperform" and remarked that there are "increasingly problematic structural problems for the company."

Gibson assigned a target price of ¥10,000 and noted that "if Nintendo went iOS/Android with games we think the stock could be worth ¥20,000+, but in our view that's not going to happen."

Ultimately, Gibson said the "competitive position of the WiiU has deteriorated" and he advises avoiding Nintendo stock until E3.

Gibson outlined three potentially big problems for Nintendo:

1. Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers, which means it has no edge besides the tablet interface to attract core users. Initial third-party titles are likely to be only ports from Xbox360/PS3 titles. A bundled WiiSports/Mario title may help initial sales beat Wii launch, but Wii was severely production-constrained and the surprise factor from Wii U is less.

2. iPad with its retina display shows where Apple is taking its 4 screen infrastructure, leaving Wii U less connected and less relevant. The GPU processing power for handsets is reaching consoles such that we think core gamers have no interest in buying into the Wii U. Apple might add in a controller to its line-up to be more attractive to core users. MocoSpace survey shows that 96% of gamers like to play their games at home, and with a better infrastructure we think iOS will be able to deliver a single game experience across four screens that Nintendo cannot.

3. Wii U will have 1-year window to gain installed base before PS4 (Orbis) and then Xbox Durango launch in late 2013. At that point, the core gamer that Nintendo is after for the first time will have no interest in Wii U. We understand that Activision has no plans to support Wii U, which means the biggest selling title of Call of Duty will be missing; Konami is also planning minimal support.

On that last point, we reached out to Activision, and the official answer is that the publisher hasn't made any announcements about Wii U support. Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg has said multiple times that Wii U would more closely align with the types of games Activision makes, but we'll see how that translates into support from the company.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-04-05-wii-u-competitive-position-has-deteriorated

First they say analyst

then they said "On that last point, we reached out to Activision, and the official answer is that the publisher hasn't made any announcements about Wii U support. Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg has said multiple times that Wii U would more closely align with the types of games Activision makes, but we'll see how that translates into support from the company."

They just completely lied right there, because Activision said they where loving the Wii U and said they will be full on Wii U support


http://www.gamespot.com/news/e3-2011-activision-supporting-wii-u-6317743

[Lord Pickleton]

A Japanese Michael Pachter

Still reading article

[Meelow100]

A Japanese Michael Pachter

Still reading article

Pretty much.

[uh20]

ok, 99.54 (yay random percent) this is a lie, lets go track his iP and pillage his house
there is minimal talk about the wiiu being low power (why else could darksiders run like xbox360/ps3 mostly unoptimized)
ipads and most of the apps deserve electronics hell anyways, what's so amazing about their overpriced made where workers get screwed ipads
if I were a real industry analyst, I would talk about how computers and portables are becoming gaming systems, but what he's saying seems far out of whack
in other news, STOCKS, DUMP ALL YER MONEY INTO NINTENDO, lulululululul

Edited by uh20, 05 April 2012 - 06:23 PM.

[Chinomanila]

Ugh, how about we stop posting upsetting rumors. Shall we?

[Lord Pickleton]

Like I do with Michael Pachter I will just brush him off, no reason in arguing with an idiot.

[Rasvita]

1. Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers, which means it has no edge besides the tablet interface to attract core users. Initial third-party titles are likely to be only ports from Xbox360/PS3 titles. A bundled WiiSports/Mario title may help initial sales beat Wii launch, but Wii was severely production-constrained and the surprise factor from Wii U is less.

LOL

[Meelow100]

Ugh, how about we stop posting upsetting rumors. Shall we?

This article proofs they where lieing the whole time, I just want GI to apologise now.

[Lord Pickleton]

I like my iPhone, iPad, and iTouch, but I don't see many great games on these devices. They are all repetitive and have little replay value. My favorite game Reckless Racing 2 was fun, but got boring since I got everything on the first day. Infinity Blade you can't freaking move in that game all you do is slide, block, and slash repeating the same thing over and over again.

If PC can't get rid of Consoles then a Mobile Device will never be able to get rid of a Console or a Dedicated Gaming Handheld.

Edited by Cerberuz, 05 April 2012 - 06:37 PM.

[uh20]

ummm, pcs quite literally are becoming gaming machines, it will only be a matter of time before the Xbox logo flies across your monitor (holy cow what if that's what Microsoft's been planning all along
also, shame for having so many apples in your house, eat them
and in 15 years time phones will probably be at ps3 level powah

[Meelow100]

ummm, pcs quite literally are becoming gaming machines, it will only be a matter of time before the Xbox logo flies across your monitor (holy cow what if that's what Microsoft's been planning all along
also, shame for having so many apples in your house, eat them
and in 15 years time phones will probably be at ps3 level powah

I'm pretty sure there are phones now that are more powerful then PS3.

[Joshua]

1. Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers

That is a lie right there!

[Chinomanila]

This article proofs they where lieing the whole time, I just want GI to apologise now.

Ok, post on.

[HaoSenVastForest]

Why in the world should I even read this? It is obviously troll bait. They are just concerned that Nintendo will take over all of gaming. So dont even listen to this. We have proof that the Wii U is by far more powerful than both the PS3 and the Xbox 360. The Bird Demo was rushed and so was the Zelda demo. The developers said that the final dev kits were more powerful than expected and they were probably expecting something 2x Xbox or PS3 tec. So why even listen to it.

[Nollog]

@^


GI is reputable.
Rumours are rumours.
Ignoring the bad just because you can't handle it is only proving John Koller right.

Edited by Nollog, 06 April 2012 - 08:48 AM.

[The Lonely Koopa]

ummm, pcs quite literally are becoming gaming machines, it will only be a matter of time before the Xbox logo flies across your monitor (holy cow what if that's what Microsoft's been planning all along
also, shame for having so many apples in your house, eat them
and in 15 years time phones will probably be at ps3 level powah

More like next year I mean phones already run Unreal engine 3 and Cryengine and Its expected by 2 years phones will run samaritan .

[Fig]

Remember, this is an analyst that has apparently taken the most recent rumors to be true.

1. Should say SOME developers have said it's less powerful than PS3/360

2. While I understand where he is coming from, I simply do not see core gamers exclusively using Apple devices, at least not as he described. PS4 and 720 are much bigger threats to Wii U than any Apple device.

3. I take issue with the language, "the core gamer that they are after for the first time". Wii was their first blue ocean strategy console. His point still remains true, With 720 and PS4 looming, will Wii U attract enough core gamers to really make an impact on that part of the market? My feeling is that a lot rides on games (obvious), but also in how they market this machine. Yes, their games must appeal to core gamers, but their advertisements must also appeal to core gamers.

Activision and Konami would be insane not to support Wii U. I find it hard to believe that they won't support it. I could see Activision skipping Black Ops 2 on Wii U, simply because they are lazy or don't see sales oppurtunities for some reason. There will all most certainly be future Activision and COD games on Wii U.

Edited by Fig, 06 April 2012 - 05:24 AM.

[The Lonely Koopa]

now an analyst in Japan is believing rumors All Nintendo needs to do is just say they are false but instead Nintendo is waiting and letting these rumors get melted into the public head in which even if they are proven false the damage has been done if they wait to long.I Severely hope Nintendo wakes up and notice these rumors are going to far soon they will be all over the regular news and into the minds of millions and by the time Nintendo notices how far they went it would be to late.
Call me a downer its just annoying since all Nintendo needs to do is say its false and let the haters keep hating they don't need to prove it to them yet but just let the general public know .

Edited by The Lonely Koopa, 06 April 2012 - 05:25 AM.

[Stewox]

Now this looks like anti-nintendo conspiracy troll ... what kind of stupid analyst would say that, not even pachter.

[Fig]

now an analyst in Japan is believing rumors All Nintendo needs to do is just say they are false but instead Nintendo is waiting and letting these rumors get melted into the public head in which even if they are proven false the damage has been done if they wait to long.I Severely hope Nintendo wakes up and notice these rumors are going to far soon they will be all over the regular news and into the minds of millions and by the time Nintendo notices how far they went it would be to late.
Call me a downer its just annoying since all Nintendo needs to do is say its false and let the haters keep hating they don't need to prove it to them yet but just let the general public know .

I agree, when you have analysts advising people not to buy your stock, you have a problem. I'm not sure how much clout this analyst has in Japan, but it is still not a good situation for Nintendo.