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Pachter Predicts Wii U Price Cut, Feels Nintendo Is Losing "Non-Traditional"


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#1 Wile E Coyote

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:32 PM

Also says gamers see tablet and mobile as "perfect substitutes" for 3DS

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter has delivered his company's latest set of predictions for the video game industry, and the findings make grim reading for Nintendo fans.

Pachter feels that with the PS4 and Xbox One looming on the horizon, hardware price cuts are likely across the board. He feels that the Wii U could see a reduction of $50 in North America as Nintendo aims to boost sales, and adds that the company may possibly look to add value to the console by bundling in "popular" software. He says that such a move should come before the holiday season.

The analyst also comments on the Wii U's recent struggles with third party support:

If the Wii U’s popularity does not improve by the end of the year, many third-party publishers may pass on producing games for the console. We note that EA recently announced that it had no Wii U games in development, and it remains a possibility that the publisher will abandon the platform entirely. Should other third parties follow EA’s lead, the Wii U could be relegated to a first party only platform.

Pachter then outlines how he sees the video game arena shaping up when Sony and Microsoft's new systems hit store shelves:

We continue to believe that Nintendo misfired with the Wii U, and believe that the next-generation of consoles will see a market share shift from Nintendo platforms to Microsoft and Sony platforms. In the aggregate, we think that the installed base of next-generation of home consoles at a similar point in the cycle will be smaller than the current generation, likely by 10-20%. However, the composition will be much different, with Sony and Microsoft each selling 85- 100 million home consoles (compared to approximately 75 million each in the current cycle) and Nintendo selling 50 million or fewer (compared to approximately 100 million in the current cycle). The 50 million decline in our forecast for Nintendo’s home console installed base reflects defections of more non-traditional gamers to social and mobile games. Should third parties follow EA’s lead and abandon the Wii U, it is likely that many Wii U households will purchase a next-generation console from Microsoft or Sony in addition to their Nintendo consoles, driving the installed base for “hard core” consoles to 220 million or higher.

Finally, Pachter addresses the handheld market — once Nintendo's cash-cow, but now arguably under threat from smartphones and tablets:

We continue to expect handheld hardware sales to decline over the next few years, as many non-traditional gamers consider smartphone and tablet games a perfect substitute for casual games played on dedicated handheld hardware. While we believe this news is bad for third-party game publishers focused on the Nintendo 3DS, there are few publishers remaining who are focused in any meaningful way on the 3DS.

We imagine these predictions will trigger a fairly vitriolic reaction from most dedicated Nintendo fans, but let's not forget that Pachter is simply doing his job: attempting to chart the course of this often unpredictable entertainment medium in order to make sure that his clients don't invest their money unwisely.

Do you feel he's wrong about the Wii U's chances, or do you see nothing but cold, hard logic in his words? What about his thoughts on the dedicated handheld market, and his claim that few publishers and developers are focused on the 3DS these days? Pachter's role is to prevent people from making bad investments, but are these predictions too pessimistic as far as Nintendo is concerned?


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#2 Alex Wolfers

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:44 PM

Everytime Pachter opens his mouth crap spews out. He never has anything legitimate to say. How the hell did that idiot get his job?


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#3 wombateer

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:49 PM

Everytime Pachter opens his mouth crap spews out. He never has anything legitimate to say. How the hell did that idiot get his job?

 

Because huge conglomerates pay him to predict sales, so if they keep paying, he has a job, unfortunately.


Edited by wombateer, 03 June 2013 - 09:49 PM.


#4 Mitch

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:52 PM

I think the price cut has been inevitable 

 

I wish I could predict something as obvious as that and get paid X amount of dollars

 

 

 

They are just pulling another 3ds stunt 

 

OH NO Nintendo is dooooomed!!!

 

Then Iwata was like B!tches Please ***Hacks off 90 dollars/Sales skyrocket*** 

 

 

Now theyll do the same thing with Wii U just in time for all the games to get released and boom Nintendo will bend over Sony and Microsoft and take them to poundtown



#5 Envy

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:00 PM

I don't like the guy, but I really hope there is a Wii U price cut. Very little could convince me to purchase the Wii U at its current price point.


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#6 Julio93

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:07 PM

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#7 Azure-Edge

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:55 PM

Because huge conglomerates pay him to predict sales, so if they keep paying, he has a job, unfortunately.

 

Too bad he's consistently wrong. Anyone actually remember the last time he was spot on about...anything? 


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#8 Hitomi

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 12:58 AM

He needs to be punched in the face.



#9 Nintyfan86

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 01:40 AM

Laughable. If the Wii U will be affected by the loss of non-traditional gamers, where does this leave the Xbone? Until the used game thing gets sorted out, how can he presume the Xbone will receive equal consideration with the PS4, unless Sony reveals something equally offsetting? If this is the case, does he not believe there will be a positive reaction towards Nintendo from traditional gamers? 

 

I can't comment on the handheld issue outside of, well, thanks again captain obvious. IOS/Android games will eat into hardware sales, but, so would any device. It will not eat into the sales of people wanting to play Nintendo/Sony exclusives, on a real handheld gaming machine. I am surprised he did not comment on Razer's platform eating into the high end, and costing the other handhelds software sales for those who bought one, LOL. 

 

On a serious note, damage control before E3. He is just citing the highest probability scenarios with the pertinent information investors want to see when speculating on market fluctuations. If anyone said what they really thought at a time like this, and they were anyone outside of a news correspondent, they would not be employed/running a firm after their predictions were both wrong and backed by pure speculation (I personally believe people are waiting to see the PS4/Xbone, along with Wii U games side by side before committing. We will see a Wii U sales bump after all three are displayed regardless of any announcements based on consumer parity).



#10 SoldMyWiiUAndLeftTheForums

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 01:57 AM

Pachter is an idiot so who gives a sh!t?



#11 BanjoKazooie

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 02:08 AM

There is no way in hell the X1 is going to sell up to 220 million units! I would be surprised if it broke 20 million ever. It is the worst console ever announced! It is so anti consumer that it sickens me to think anyone would throw money at it to support it! Also, wii U does need a price cut...

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#12 Nollog

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 03:29 AM

Sounds like "The market is shrinking, but only for Nintendo because.... uh... uh... I dunno, they're Nintendo I guess?"


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#13 TheUltimateWaddleDee

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 04:21 AM

Enough with the Mobile destroys 3DS unicorn tongue No one will buy a phone or tablet to replace handheld gaming, unless you are getting a Razer Edge tablet,which is expensive as hell. Even with all of the stupid controller add-ons, you can't play games like Fire Emblem Awakening, Resident Evil Revelations, or Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. Mobile gaming will never, EVER replace mobile gaming.

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#14 Alex Wolfers

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 04:35 AM

TheUltimateWaddleDee, on 04 Jun 2013 - 06:21 AM, said:Enough with the Mobile destroys 3DS unicorn tongue No one will buy a phone or tablet to replace handheld gaming, unless you are getting a Razer Edge tablet,which is expensive as hell. Even with all of the stupid controller add-ons, you can't play games like Fire Emblem Awakening, Resident Evil Revelations, or Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. Mobile gaming will never, EVER replace mobile gaming.

Me:As I said before Angry Birds Can't kill Zelda.


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#15 BrosBeforeGardenTools

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 04:36 AM

Me:As I said before Angry Birds Can't kill Zelda.


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#16 xBASSxMONSTAx

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 06:21 AM

A list of his predictions:

 

Pachter: “Fuse will sell 5 million units”

Pachter: “The PS4 will run games at 240 FPS”

Pachter: “The PSP will crush the DS”

Pachter: “The 3DS is doomed to smartphones and tablets”

Pachter: “The Wii won’t sell as much as the PS3 or 360″

Pachter: “Borderlands has been sent to die, it will not sell well”

Pachter: “The Vita will steal the 3DS’ market share”

Pachter: “The Xbox One will sell 100 million units”

 

 

Need i say more.


Edited by xBASSxMONSTAx, 04 June 2013 - 06:22 AM.


#17 Phanto

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 08:06 AM

Pachter is an idiot. I never listen to a word he says. He just trolls Nintendo because he has nothing better to do.



#18 DanJiblets

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 07:36 PM

Hmmmm...

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#19 White Trite Chronicles

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 07:58 PM

You people react too hard to this.

 

Remember Pachter and remember how stupid he is.


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#20 Rockodoodle

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 08:27 PM

I think it would be a good idea for Nintendo to tap into this with the eShop and gamepad.... start selling little games and then also allow them to be integrated with multiple gamepads- I know that this takes resources but shouldn't be a big deal if they were just simple games. Thought some of those touchscreen games at a bar would be fun on the gamepad.

 

 

Laughable. If the Wii U will be affected by the loss of non-traditional gamers, where does this leave the Xbone? Until the used game thing gets sorted out, how can he presume the Xbone will receive equal consideration with the PS4, unless Sony reveals something equally offsetting? If this is the case, does he not believe there will be a positive reaction towards Nintendo from traditional gamers? 

 

I can't comment on the handheld issue outside of, well, thanks again captain obvious. IOS/Android games will eat into hardware sales, but, so would any device. It will not eat into the sales of people wanting to play Nintendo/Sony exclusives, on a real handheld gaming machine. I am surprised he did not comment on Razer's platform eating into the high end, and costing the other handhelds software sales for those who bought one, LOL. 

 

On a serious note, damage control before E3. He is just citing the highest probability scenarios with the pertinent information investors want to see when speculating on market fluctuations. If anyone said what they really thought at a time like this, and they were anyone outside of a news correspondent, they would not be employed/running a firm after their predictions were both wrong and backed by pure speculation (I personally believe people are waiting to see the PS4/Xbone, along with Wii U games side by side before committing. We will see a Wii U sales bump after all three are displayed regardless of any announcements based on consumer parity).

 






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